02 Jul 2025 Intermediate This material is for medium-skilled players equity pot odds Understanding poker math is important for both cash game regulars and tournament players. Poker math means calculating odds and probabilities in each hand to choose the most profitable action. A good player must think about pot odds, implied odds, and reverse implied odds before making a decision. But many players make simple mistakes when doing these calculations. Here are three common ones: Mistakes when calculating draw odds Mistakes when using percentages Confusing ratios and probabilities Mistakes When Calculating Draw Odds One of the biggest mistakes players make is using the wrong odds for their draws. Many players remember only the odds of hitting flushes and straights with two cards to come. These odds are fine, but they can be misleading. Most odds charts show the chance to hit your draw with two cards left to come (the turn and river). For example, the chance to hit a flush draw with two cards is about 2 to 1. But if you only get to see the turn card before facing another bet, these odds are not good for making a call on the flop. If you call on the flop using the 2 to 1 odds but then face another bet on the turn, you now need to pay again. This changes the math. Always use odds for one card if you only see the next card. Example: The chance to hit a flush with one card is about 4 to 1. So, if you are on the flop: Odds to hit flush by the turn = 4 to 1 Odds to hit flush by the river = 2 to 1 Example of using the wrong odds: You have a flush draw on the flop. Villain bets $40 into a $120 pot. You get 3 to 1 pot odds. If you wrongly use the 2 to 1 odds, the call looks good. But if you miss on the turn and face another bet of $80 into $160, you again get 3 to 1. Now you paid $120 ($40 + $80) to win $200. Your real odds were closer to 1.7 to 1 — not enough. If you used the 4 to 1 odds for just the next card, you would see it was not profitable to call on the flop. You’d save money. Mistakes When Using Percentages Some players use the percentage method to calculate pot odds. But they forget one key thing. Always add your own call amount to the final pot size when using percentages. Example of doing it wrong: Villain bets $40 into an $80 pot. The total pot after you call will be $160. So, your $40 call is 25% of $160. This means your hand needs at least 25% equity to call. If you forget to add your own call, you think the pot is $120. Then your $40 call looks like 33% — a big mistake. This can lead you to make bad calls. Confusing Ratios and Probabilities Many players mix up odds ratios and probabilities. They are not the same. Probability: 1 in 4 = 1 success in 4 tries Odds ratio: 4 to 1 = 4 failures for every 1 success → 5 tries in total Example: 1 in 4 → 1 hit, 3 misses → 4 total 4 to 1 → 1 hit, 4 misses → 5 total See the difference? Always know which one you are using. Final Thoughts There are many ways to make math mistakes in poker. Even strong regulars do it sometimes — so don’t stress if it happens to you. This guide shows you the most common math errors so you can avoid them. The more you play and practice, the better you’ll get. Make better choices, win more pots — now go play and crush it!
