Common Poker Probabilities for Preflop and Postflop Situations

19 Nov 2024

Intermediate

This material is for medium-skilled players

Probabilities are one of the most important and fascinating aspects of the game. Many poker situations occur frequently, making it essential to memorize key poker probabilities.

These probabilities are calculated using basic probability theory, which many people are familiar with from school and college.

While you can calculate probabilities on your own, it is usually unnecessary, as specialized software and probability calculators have already done the work.

What Are Probabilities in Poker?

In poker, probability measures how often a specific event will occur, expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100%. Understanding these probabilities allows you to evaluate and analyze the profitability of various decisions in a given situation.

This article contains tables with poker probabilities to help you make better decisions during the game.

• Note for Beginners: If you are new to poker, start by learning the rules of Texas Hold'em and poker hand rankings.

Probabilities in Typical Preflop All-Ins

The table below shows your chances of winning in preflop all-in situations with different hands.

Probability of Making a Hand with a Pocket Pair

The table below shows the probabilities of improving a pocket pair on the preflop to a specific hand on the post-flop.

Hand	Hand and Board Example	Probability
Set on the Flop	on	10.8%
Full House on the Flop	on	0.7%
Four of a Kind on the Flop	on	0.2%
Set or Better by the River	on	19%

Probability of Making a Hand with Suited Cards on the Flop

The table below shows the probabilities of improving suited starting cards from the preflop to specific hands on the post-flop.

Hand	Hand and Board Example	Probability
Flush on the Flop	on	0.84%
Flush Draw on the Flop	on	10.94%
Backdoor Flush Draw on the Flop	on	41.6%
Made Straight on the Flop	on	1.31%
OESD or Better on the Flop	on	10.45%
Two Pair or Better on the Flop	on	3.47%
Flush by the River	on	6.4%

Probability of Making a Hand with Offsuit Cards on the Flop

The table below shows the probabilities of improving offsuit starting cards from the preflop to specific hands on the post-flop.

Hand	Hand and Board Example	Probability
Flush Draw on the Flop	on	1.1%
Backdoor Flush Draw on the Flop	on	12.8%
OESD on the Flop	on	9.71%
Flush by the River	on	1.8%

Probabilities to Hit a Hand on the Flop

The table below shows the probabilities (equity) of different types of starting hands hitting specific hands or draws on the flop. 

Starting Hand	Example	Straight	Flush	Two Pair+	OESD	FD	Total Equity
Suited Connector (SC)		1.31%	0.84%	3.49%	9.71%	10.13%	25.5%
SC with 1 Gap		0.96%	0.84%	3.49%	7.58%	10.13%	23%
SC with 2 Gaps		0.64%	0.84%	3.49%	4.59%	10.13%	19.69%
SC with 3 Gaps		0.32%	0.84%	3.49%	1.93%	10.13%	16.71%
Offsuit Connector (OC)		1.31%	-	3.49%	9.71%	-	14.51%
OС with 1 Gap		0.98%	-	3.49%	7.67%	-	12.14%
OС with 2 Gap		0.65%	-	3.49%	4.98%	-	9.12%
OС with 3 Gap		0.33%	-	3.49%	2.61%	-	6.43%
Random Suited Hand		-	0.84%	3.49%	-	10.13%	14.46%
Random Offsuit Hand		-	-	3.49%	-	-	3.49%
Pocket Pair		-	-	11.75%	-	-	11.75%

Probability of Making a Hand with Two Unpaired Cards on the Flop

The table below shows the probabilities of improving two unpaired starting cards from the preflop to specific hands on the flop.

Hand	Hand and Board Example	Probability
Pair or Better	on	32.5%
Pair	on	29%
Two Pair (with both cards)	on ​​​​​	2%
Any Two Pair	on ​​​	4%
Trips	on	1.35%
Full House (with both cards)	on ​​​​​	0.09%
Four of a Kind	on	0.01%

Probability of Different Flop Textures

This table shows the probabilities of flops having specific textures.

Flop Texture	Flop Example	Probability
Three of a Kind (Trips)		0.24%
Paired		17%
Three Cards of the Same Suit		5.2%
Two Cards of the Same Suit		55%
Rainbow (All Different Suits)		40%
Three Consecutive Ranks		3.5%
Two Consecutive Ranks		40%
No Consecutive Ranks		56%

Probability of No Overcards on the Flop

When holding a pocket pair preflop, it is useful to know the likelihood of no overcards appearing on the flop, turn, or river, as overcards can weaken the strength of our hand.

The table below shows these probabilities.

	Flop	Turn	River
	77.45%	70.86%	64.7%
	58.57%	48.6%	40.15%
	43.04%	32.05%	23.69%
	30.53%	20.14%	13.13%
	20.71%	11.9%	6.73%
	13.27%	6.49%	3.1%
	7.86%	3.18%	1.24%
	4.16%	1.33%	0.4%
	1.86%	0.43%	0.09%
	0.61%	0.09%	0.01%
	0.1%	0.01%	<0.01%

Probability of Improving a Hand from the Flop to the Turn  

The table below shows the probabilities of improving specific hands from the flop to the turn.

Hand Improvement	Hand and Board Example	Probability
Set to Full House+	on	15%
Two Pair to Full House	on	8.5%
Flush Draw to Flush	on	19%
OESD to Straight	on	17%
Gutshot to Straight	on	8.5%
Pair to Trips	on	4.3%
Pair to One of Two Overcards	on	12.8%

Probability of Improving a Hand from the Flop to the River

This table shows the chances of improving a hand from the flop to the river. The probabilities for the turn and river can be combined to understand your odds better in post-flop situations.

Hand Improvement	Hand and Board Example	Probability
Set to Full House+	on	33%
Two Pair to Full House+	on	17%
Flush Draw to Flush	on	35%
Backdoor Flush Draw to Flush	on	4.2%
OESD to Straight	on	32%
Gutshot to Straight	on	17%
Pair to One of Two Overcards	on	24%

Probability of Facing a Dominating Ace Preflop

The table below shows the chances of encountering a dominating Ace when you hold an Ace in your hand. The percentages represent the likelihood that your opponent(s) will have a better Ace (a higher kicker).

These calculations apply to preflop situations.

Probability of Facing a Higher Pocket Pair Preflop

Here is the table showing the probability of facing a higher pocket pair than yours preflop, based on the number of opponents.