Stop Overplaying Suited Hands: Poker Math Every Player Must Know

14 Aug 2025

Intermediate

This material is for medium-skilled players

There are plenty of things and probabilities in poker that we overvalue. How many times have you heard someone justify their play by saying that they had suited cards? As if suited cards magically make their chances of making a big hand skyrocket.

So, most poker players greatly overvalue hands with both cards of the same suit. They hope to hit a flush on the turn-river, or at least a flush draw. The main problem with these hands, however, is that they do not live up to the illusory expectations that an enthusiastic amateur (or even an experienced player) has for them. And the real chances of hitting the desired hand are much lower than expected.

These are real facts and math. In this article, you will learn how to evaluate the true value of hands based on the sum of all their properties, and not just because these cards are of the same color.

• If you tend to chase flush draws and especially flushes, then reading this material is recommended for you.

Let's break this down into specifics. A suited hand is one with both cards of the same color, and that's it. This doesn't guarantee anything regarding its playability, much less profitability. The level of relatedness of the cards doesn't count. For example, and  - they have the same probability of hitting a flush draw as well as hitting a flush on the turn-river.

This bucket of cold water needs to cool your ardor of playing suited hands just because they are suited. In reality, you will miss your flush 93.5% of the time (!), and sometimes you will also hit a higher flush from your opponent.

However, many players who are dealt cards of the same suit consider them something special. This is because suited hands themselves are only dealt 24% of the time, including 14% of the time when drawing suited connectors or gappers, and 10% of the other hands with same-colored cards. Since the odds of simply drawing cards of the same suit are not that high, players fall into this illusion and then spin new ones.

Now let's dive into the actual numbers, and cover what we said earlier because it's important. You'll flop suited cards, connected or not, ~24% of the time. This includes any suited hands: 76s, K9s, J2s, etc.

You'll flop 3 suited cards 5.2% of the time (18.23:1 odds). Just keep in mind that those 3 suited cards could be any of the other 3 suits, not the one your cards are! So that 5.2% of the time could be... Total probability of flopping a flush = 0.82% (118:1 odds).

Now for the flush draw. The flop will come with 2 cards of the same suit and one card of the other suit 55% of the time (0.82:1), but this can also be divided by 4, because your suit is only one of 4 available. You will hit a flush draw 11% of the time (9:1). You will have 9 outs in total, giving you a 35% chance of making a flush by the river. - Sounds inspiring, doesn't it? - However, there are three «buts».

The first «but»

In a normal hand and with a normal SPR, you are not guaranteed to see both cards at all if you flop a flush draw. You can be squeezed out immediately or later. For example, your opponent is bombarding you with large bets / raises, so it is not convenient for you to call, and not according to the odds, and the presence of implied odds for hitting the target hand is questionable. But, let's say that you called the bet on the flop - then the story will often repeat itself on the turn.

The second «but»

You may have less than 9 outs. For example, when someone who entered the hand had at least one card of the same suit as you, then you no longer have 9, but only 8 outs ... And also if the opponent has his own flush draw, - obviously, of your suit, - then you already have 7 outs at best.

The third «but»

Your outs will not always be clean. If the opponent has a higher flush draw (let it be a diamond), then the diamond that comes out will only make things worse for you - you will lose the entire stack to the opponent or a significant part of it.

Let's run the simulation

You have  on an  flop. The initial pot is 60, and your opponent bets 35, so the total pot before your decision is 95. If you call, you'll have to do it against the pot odds: you need ~27% equity (2.71:1), and you only have 19% (4.22:1).

• And here's a simple question: is this call profitable in the long run? And in the short run?

Now let's make it worse. 

You're hoping to get to an 8-high flush and win. Win a lot. But what if your opponent(s) also has a flush? You don't have 9 outs anymore, you have 7 or less. But what if you're up against a higher flush? - Then you're screwed.

In a 9-handed game there is a 35% chance that another player holds also two of your suit and chances are one of their cards is higher than your . So even if you hit, are you even good?

And out of those seven other players who have 14 cards between them (or 27% of the deck) that you haven't seen, do you think there might be at least one of your suit?

Let's go deeper. 18 cards were dealt preflop to 9 players. This is 34.6% of the deck. Plus, 3 cards on the flop and a «burn» - a total of 22 cards (42.3% of the deck) have already come out. And they have seen 5 of the 7 cards that will give you a flush (or 71.43% of the potential hand). - All this means that you are betting your entire plan on just 2 cards. 28.57% of your target hand is still unknown. And of these two cards, you are hoping for the one you need to come out. => The chances of just hitting a flush are already pretty small in themselves.

So if the math is so stubborn and harsh, then why do most players still get so excited by suited hands? - There are several answers, and they can stack up.

Let's call a spade a spade - it's not logic, it's emotions and psychology. Suited cards look beautiful, they feel connected, they whisper to you about their potential, not about problems. And when you hit one of those rare flushes, you remember it for a long time, because the brain registers such vivid sensations as the memory of a jackpot.

This is the so called confirmation bias: you want to think that the chance of hitting the desired hand is still high, and thus unconsciously reinforce your illusion hand after hand.

The love of suited hands can sometimes even result in major flaws in strategy. The human tendency to overvalue rare results is similar to how some people buy lottery tickets every week in the hope of finally hitting the jackpot that is «prepared for them by fate itself for all their previous suffering.»

Most players know very well that flushes rarely hit, but they still place such hopes on suited cards as if they had something very strong in their hands - and play them accordingly.

And here's the rub. In reality, many of the «pretty» hands are actually structurally weak:

• Low card ranks,
• Large gaps between ranks, and
• Lack of real playability post flop.

But the fact that the hand is suited works as a mask for all these shortcomings, and in the end we play them with hope. Therefore, for some, even  is a good hand with which to fight an annoying opponent. But in fact, the suitedness of the cards in no way fixes the lack of coordination between the cards, the lack of position, or the fact that the opponent will easily end up with a higher kicker.

I will tell you frankly: playing hands just because they look nice is a losing approach: you do not confuse your opponents, nor do you make yourself less readable, but simply drain money on a pleasant illusion.

So, there are enough arguments why playing cards just because they are suited is unprofitable in the long run. But it's not all bad.

Suitedness has its value, you just shouldn't rely on it. The right way to think about it is as an addendum in combination with something else. Usually, for suitedness to lead to +EV, you need to have two ways to win the hand. Let's look at a few simple examples that will demonstrate this well.

For example,  or  - they have, first of all, two high cards, and only then - the possibility of making a flush.

Or  - one of the best suited connectors - this hand has the potential to both hit a flush and make a straight. But let's be completely honest: JTs only has a 15% chance (5.76:1) of making one of these monster hands by the river. That's the best that can happen for suited connectors. But it's still only going to happen 1/3 of the time, and the other 2/3 of the time the hand will still miss. There's another detail: both straights and flushes can be beaten by higher-card straights/flushes, especially in multiway pots.

Now let's talk about the so-called «playable» hand . ​​The conditions are good: Hero is on the cutoff, in a multi-way pot with deep stacks, passive opponents and excellent pot odds. Here are the most likely postflop scenarios in descending order:

• You will be left with trash already on the flop,
• You will have one pair. Most often - middle or lower. - And what next? - Most likely, many will call one bet on the flop in order to give up later (=> what's the point of calling?).
• If you hit a flush or straight draw, then you will have bad pot odds, and the threat of getting coolered will remain serious.

In general, this is also not a scenario in which we would like to find ourselves often, if we are not our own enemies. - So this is not a strategy, but wishful thinking. In other words, illusions.

Playing suited hands will only be profitable when you already have some advantage that does not concern the color of your cards: position, fold equity, playability, realization of your equity and the connection between the ranks of the cards.

You should always ask yourself:

• What is my plan in case of a complete miss of the flop?
• What will I do with one pair?
• In such conditions?
• Am I really winning in big pots or am I simply paying for the opportunity to try to do this with beautiful hands?

Because, as I have said many times, playing with beautiful hands without a clear plan, but only because of their «prettiness», will slowly, quietly and imperceptibly, but surely lead you to losses in the cash and morale. And you will not even understand the reason.

By this point, the situation with suited hands should be clear. Suited hands are nothing special, and they should not be treated as near-premium. The same suit of cards almost does not increase their strength - if we are talking about the logical end of the hand - until the river. And it increases their profitability only by a pittance.

• Playing suited hands purely because of the suit is a losing approach. - It is statistically proven that money flows from you to your opponents, and not vice versa.
• Always ask yourself: Do I have two ways to win the hand or not? - Because if the opponent does not fold, then suited trash remains trash.
• Remember and take into account the real probabilities. - A flush is formed from preflop to river less than 7% of the time when you had a «nice» hand at all. And a flush draw in a normal game, where you don't push on the flop, but play all the streets postflop, has only a 19% chance of hitting its out. If there was an all-in, so that now you are guaranteed to see both cards, then the chances rise to 35%. But usually you will have to play a flush draw with insufficient pot odds to make profitable calls. And implied odds can easily be overestimated - if they exist at all.
• Weak flushes (with low kickers) often get dominated by bigger flushes. - And then the player loses big, blaming the damned RNG for everything, but not himself.
• Connectedness, position, fold equity, playability and realization of your equity contribute much more to the EV of the situation than the suitedness of your cards. - If your hand has poor playability postflop and/or you do not know how to play it, then the fact that the cards are one color will not help you in any way, but may only convince you to try to bluff your opponent.

Math speaks directly, and it doesn't care about emotions. Its language is concrete - facts. Hands of the same suit are only slightly better than hands of different suits and never become very profitable, because its unprofitable variant in a multi-colored version was given the same color. In the first place in a profitable game of poker, much more significant factors come out:

• Having a position on the opponent / opponents
• Aggression in the hand - fold equity on opponents,
• Postflop playability of the hand - in most situations it would be good to hit the texture,
• Connectivity between the ranks of the cards - it is better to have an additional opportunity to hit a straight or straight draw than not to have and
• Realization of your equity as the sum of all the listed terms. Because poker, in principle, is about it.

If the hand is even a little short of being worth the effort, then you know what to do with it.