24 Sep 2025 Beginner This material is for beginner players 3-bet bluff bluff catching The Yeti Theorem is an older poker concept. It first appeared on the Two Plus Two forum. The idea became popular because it was simple. It also gave players a clear plan for certain flops. What Is the Yeti Theorem? The idea behind it is simple: A 3-bet on a dry flop (especially a paired flop) almost always means a bluff. In other words, when the flop is very dry — with no flush draws or straight draws possible — and you raise your opponent, then face a re-raise, the Yeti Theorem suggests that your opponent is usually bluffing. A paired flop like is the classic example. This theorem is easy to remember. It is also easy to misuse. Disclaimer: Modern poker is different from 15 years ago. Keep that in mind as you read. So, If the flop is dry and/or paired, and you raise a bet, and then your opponent re-raises (3-bets the flop), that re-raise is usually a bluff. The logic is about ranges. Value hands do not like to show that much strength on such boards. Bluffs, however, need that strength to make you fold. On dry paired flops, there are few strong value hands. Trips exist, but they are rare. Overpairs exist, but not always. Top pair is often not strong enough to 3-bet for value. Because of this, many real value hands just call. They slow play or control the pot. That leaves the 3-bet to hands with no showdown value, i.e. bluffs. When It Applies Best Heads-up pots. Rainbow boards are best. C-bet size small to medium. Villain is aggressive or capable of light re-raises. When It Applies Poorly Multiway pots. Short stacks with low SPR. Versus very tight value-heavy opponents. Against players who 3-bet value on dry flops (modern regs do this). After big preflop action where ranges are very strong (3-bet/4-bet pots). Example of the Yeti Theorem Imagine you are heads-up and acting first. The flop comes . You check. Your opponent bets. You check-raise. Now the action is back on your opponent. If they re-raise (i.e 3-bet), the Yeti Theorem says this is almost always a bluff. In this case, the correct play is often to shove all-in, forcing your opponent either to fold or to call with a stronger hand. Why the Yeti Theorem Works Let’s break down the logic behind this theorem: If the opponent has an : Their hand is not strong enough to re-raise after facing a check-raise. At best, an 8 can justify a call, but a re-raise would be too risky against what looks like trips or an overpair. If the opponent has a : Most players with trips will prefer to slow play rather than re-raise. By just calling, they allow you to keep betting or bluffing later streets. A re-raise would look too strong and reveal the strength of their hand. This reasoning makes it unusual to see a real value hand re-raise in these spots, which is why the Yeti Theorem suggests a bluff is much more likely. Is the Yeti Theorem Still Effective? Solvers do not “believe” the theorem. They mix. On many dry paired boards, GTO still has bluff 3-bets. But it also has value 3-bets with some overpairs and trips. Modern regs know this. They can 3-bet for value more than old-school players. This weakens the theorem. It does not erase it. It only means you must add reads. Final Thoughts The Yeti Theorem says flop 3-bets on dry paired boards are often bluffs. It works best heads-up, deep, on rainbow textures, versus aggressive opponents. It works worse multiway, shallow, on dynamic textures, or versus tight players. Use it as an exploit, not a rule. Add reads, sizes, and blockers. Think clearly. Then press the right spots hard.
