22 Jan 2025 Intermediate This material is for medium-skilled players bet sizing EV pot odds probabilities EV is a fundamental poker concept that appears in strategy discussions, forums, and training materials. In this article, we’ll explain what EV is and why it’s crucial for making the best poker decisions. What is Expected Value (EV)? Expected value (EV) is the average amount of money you will win or lose from a specific decision over time. In every poker situation, actions like check, call, bet, raise, or fold have a certain EV. Some actions will generate profit (+EV), while others will result in losses (-EV). Among the +EV actions, some will be more profitable than others. Your goal is to choose the action with the highest EV. +EV – A profitable decision that will make money in the long run. -EV – A losing decision that will cost you money in the long run. How is EV Calculated? You calculate EV by multiplying the possible outcomes by their probabilities and summing the results. It sounds complicated, but it's actually simple. Let’s go through a few examples to make it clear. Example 1: Coin Flip Bet This is a common example used to explain EV. Imagine your friend offers you the following bet: You win $1.50 every time the coin lands on heads. You lose $1.00 every time it lands on tails. To calculate the EV of this game, we need to know the probability of each outcome: $Tails (-$1.00): 50% $Heads (+$1.50): 50% Now, we calculate EV: EV = (-$1.00 * 0.5) + ($1.50 * 0.5) = (-0.50) + (0.75) = $0.25 This means that on average, you will make $0.25 per flip. Even if you lose a few times in a row, in the long run, this is a profitable bet. Example 2: Flush Draw Example Now, let’s apply EV to a real poker situation. Scenario: Your hand: Board: The pot is $100, and your opponent goes all-in for $50. You need to call $50 to try to win a total pot of $150. If hitting a flush is your only way to win, what’s the EV of calling? Step 1: Identify Possible Outcomes and Probabilities Hitting a flush and winning +$150 — 20% chance Missing the flush and losing -$50 — 80% chance Step 2: Calculate EV EV = ($150 * 0.2) + (-$50 * 0.8) EV = ($30) + (-$40) EV = -$10 This means that if you call, you will lose an average of $10 per call in the long run. Since the EV is negative, this is a bad call. Why is EV Important in Poker? Every decision you make in poker should aim to maximize EV. If you consistently make decisions with the highest EV, you will make more money over time. Even though it’s impossible to always pick the best action, striving for maximum EV will improve your game and increase your profits. Unlike pot odds, which can be calculated in real-time, EV is mainly used for analyzing hands after the session. EV calculations help you review hands where you were unsure of the best play. They also help explain why certain strategies are profitable and others are not. Conclusion EV in poker represents the money you expect to win or lose on average from each decision. The more +EV decisions you make, the more you will win over time. While calculating EV in complex situations can be difficult, understanding the concept is essential for improving your poker strategy. By focusing on maximizing EV in every hand, you will become a stronger and more profitable player.