downswing fold equity GTO red line value bet variance Detailed hand review session examining a 10NL player's downswing investigation. Pete Clarke from CarrotCorner breaks down red line problems, identifies passive play leaks, discusses delayed C-betting strategy, fold equity concepts, and provides homework assignments including GTO Wizard simulations to improve win rate. Main leak identified as overly passive play with poor red line. Focus on increasing bluff frequency, delayed C-bets, and value extraction needed. Downswing Diagnosis & Strategy Fixes: Red line disaster analysis - Steep downward non-showdown winnings indicating lack of aggression and bluff frequency in key spots Passive play leak identification - Player not scrapping enough, missing value bets and bluff opportunities that hurt long-term win rate Delayed C-bet homework assignment - GTO Wizard node lock simulations recommended to study optimal delayed continuation betting frequencies Fold equity misconceptions clarified - Understanding when bluffs need sufficient fold equity versus comparing betting to checking, not folding Board texture strategy discussion - Learning which flops favor large bets versus small bet strategies based on range advantages Value betting river spots - Identifying thin value opportunities against weak opponents who call light with marginal holdings Variance psychology management - Addressing the mental game aspect of not knowing if results come from bad play or natural variance
