90% of Money Is Won on the River - The System That Fixes Your Winrate

Hungry Horse
28 Sep 2025
Intermediate
This material is for medium-skilled players
Strategy

Learn the "inverse question" system that separates crushers from average players on the river. This video teaches you when to bet small with value hands and huge with bluffs—or flip it entirely—based on opponent ranges. The checklist approach reveals exactly when to call, fold, or bluff-raise. Built from 50,000 hours of live poker data, these sizing strategies help serious players maximize river profitability without guessing.

The river generates the most money in poker, yet most players guess their sizing. The "inverse question" flips your perspective: ask what size you'd use if holding the opposite hand type. This single question eliminates guessing and creates perfect sizing in almost all spots. Rather than the oversimplified "bet big with bluffs, small with value," the video shows sizing depends entirely on opponent ranges. The bluff-catching checklist—covering six critical questions—helps you find easy folds with strong hands and easy calls with weak hands. The key: understanding your opponent's polarized versus linear betting patterns determines whether your bluffs go tiny or huge.

River Domination: Sizing Your Way to Crusher Status

  • The inverse question method: reverse your hand type to find perfect bet sizing for both value and bluffs
  • Bluff-catching checklist with six questions: do you beat value, are they capable, did you give rope, is size significant, do they have non-showdown value, and is bluff-raising more profitable
  • Sizing varies by opponent range, not hand strength: value can go small or huge depending on what draws opponent into the river
  • Elastic versus inelastic opponents: determine if your opponent is price-sensitive to adjust bet sizing accordingly
  • Polarized versus linear ranges: when opponents bet polarized, bluffs go small and value goes huge; when linear, the reverse often applies
  • Live poker exploits: recreational players avoid raising thin on rivers and don't over-call large sizes, letting you find thin value spots
  • Hand-by-hand examples: real scenarios showing when to bet 150 versus 500 with the same hand depending on opponent construction
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