18 Dec 2025 Advanced This material is for experienced players rake variance winrate Tombos21 explores population win rates across online poker stakes from NL10 to NL500. He reveals how many players actually win at each level, why games appear easier at higher stakes, and introduces a Bayesian tool to determine if your results are luck or skill faster than traditional methods. Rake matters more than skill at low stakes. Higher stakes have more winners due to lower rake, not softer fields. Use Bayesian analysis for faster sample convergence. Understanding Population Win Rates Across Stakes: Only 7.5% of NL10 players are winning, while 30% of NL500 players show profits - rake is the primary difference The average NL10 player loses 9-10 bb/100, but this shifts right as stakes increase due to decreasing rake percentages High-volume players (5000+ hands) show dramatically better results - nearly 50% are winning vs 29% in the general population Bayesian win rate adjustments converge in 5,000-10,000 hands instead of requiring 50,000-100,000 hands for accuracy Moving from NL200 to NL500 doesn't face much tougher competition, but rake drops significantly from the lower stakes The "rake trap" at micro stakes is the biggest barrier - escaping low stakes should be every player's priority Live games offer higher win rates than online due to slower pace and softer competition, but sacrifice volume and convenience
